What's next for Thailand?

By: BiodunIginla

Bangkok : Thailand | about 1 month ago

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by Selina O'Grady. reporting for Biodun Iginla @ BBC News, from London

Analysis

After the decision of the judiciary to strip the elected ruling coalition from power, Thailand remains a country divided

Matthew Weaver and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday December 2 2008 15.12 GMT
Article history

Anti-government protestors celebrate the court decision stripping the ruling party of power at the Bangkok's besieged Suvarnabhumi international airport. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP

Today's court ruling against Thailand's governing coalition throws the country into further turmoil and uncertainty.

There is a danger the decision to ban the prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, from politics for five years will end up pleasing no one and add to the tensions in an already fractious country.

The finding of electoral fraud by constitutional court has angered the red-shirted, pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), which has described it as a "judicial coup", and there is anxiety about the how the government's rural support will react.

But analysts say the ruling may also fail to placate the yellow-shirted, anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (Pad), despite the celebrations at the airports today.

The governing coalition's plan to reform as a new party, called Peua Thai, will likely lead to further angry protests. However, it is unclear whether Peua Thai would be legally allowed to form a new government, and any such attempts are likely to be fiercely resisted.

Protesters said this morning they would not abandon the current airport protests, but Pad has since said it will call a halt to them at midnight (5pm BST).

Pad sees Somchai and his colleagues in the People Power party (PPP) as puppets of the former prime minister Thaskin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup in 2006, and there are fears of further clashes between the UDD and Pad.

An anti-government protester was killed when a grenade was thrown from a flyover near the Don Muang airport. Today's Bangkok Post even raised the prospect of a civil war and warned that "violence cannot be avoided". It urged the authorities to restore order.

Talk of a civil war may be too pessimistic, but the country is certainly divided. The business elite and the military backs Pad, but the government enjoys widespread support among the poor, particularly in the countryside.

Some are hoping the 80-year-old king, who is respected by both sides, will step in to resolve the crisis and recommend a government of national unity.

He is thought to favour the protesters after he criticised the government's economic policy. He is also suspected of ordering the coup against Thaksin. In the past he has only made calls for national unity after violence has broken out. The prolific Thai blogger Bangkok Pundit puts the chances of royal intervention at only 5%.

Despite its name, Pad is an anti-democratic movement that favours an appointed government. It claims democracy is unsuitable for Thailand because it leads to corruption of the kind highlighted in the case ruled on today.

It has the support of the military. But the military has held back from intervening this time after a coup two years ago succeeded in removing Thaksin, but not his acolytes.

Khi Kwai, another prominent Thai political blogger, argues today's "judicial coup" could represent the best hope for resolving the political crisis peacefully.

Writing before the widely expected ruling, he predicted a court decision to dissolve the ruling PPP would give the party's leadership the chance to regroup and step down without giving in to Pad's demands. He said they could then potentially reclaim power with an even stronger popular mandate.

But will Pad allow this to happen? They could barricade parliament again, as they did last month, and generate a fresh stalemate. If that happens, Reuters claims there is speculation among Bangkok's elite the judiciary would suspend the constitution and appoint an interim council, mainly of judges, to run the country.

A judicial coup indeed.